Computers in 5 years
8:44 AM in Programming by Vic Russell
I have been an avid system builder for the past 12 years. I started computing with Apple IIe, Commadore64, and Sanyo MBC 550. These computers were floppy disk units only – with the exception of the Commadore64 which was a cassette tape-drive. I purchased a used Leading Edge computer with a 10MB hard drive in the late 80′s. That was a tremendous boon since the floppy flip could be stopped, and the speed of program load was tremendous. Since these were all DOS only machines – no windowing software so 1 program at a time could be run- that was a significant performance boost.
I spent over $2,000 on a Leading Edge Intel 486-d 16 MHz system with a 100MB hard drive in the early 90′s. This amount of storage and having Windows 3.1 for Workgroups was another performance boost. A lighting strike killed that computer about 2 years after I purchased it, forcing me to purchase another – a Packard-Bell 100MHz Pentium with 8MB of RAM and a 1GB Hard drive. Wow, I would never use all that drive space!
Once I decided to upgrade to Windows 95 (at a very reasonable $95.00), I needed another 8MB of RAM ($120.00) which gave me a total of 16MB of RAM – adequate for running Win95. I quickly ran out of hard drive space, so I had to purchase a 2GB hard drive as a slave for $220.00. That system performed adequately for 6 years – our kids played educational games, I was on dial-up internet through Netscape and then AOL, and life was good.
Then, we purchased a second computer – an HP 750MHz Athalon XP system with a 30GB hard drive and Windows ME OS with a color monitor for around $850.00. Now, we had two systems, but only one phone line. We decided that the primary HP system that the kids had access to was our main system. I could use the 100MHz system only when the HP was not online, and, we were not using the telephone. This latter issue was a big deal given the cost of cellular minutes in the late 90′s and early 2000′s. Consequently, I did much computing late in the evening.
Very soon after the purchase of the HP, we began to purchase systems at around 1.5 per year. This ranged from a 600MHz Citrix chip-based system to 3GHz P4 dual core. These were Bare Bones systems purchased primarily through Tiger Direct and New Egg, and costing around $200 to fully build. Eventually, we were up to 6 running systems – 2 laptops, 1 server, 3 desktops.
In the years between the HP and today, we upgraded to Cable broadband. We had a 100KBit connection for a couple of years – which was adequate for 2-3 computers (mid 90′s), which is what we had at the time. Now, we have 1.5+ MBit connection that isn’t effected by any amount of network traffic (unless, we have 4 systems playing Hulu or streaming YouTube videos at the same time).
Future
The significance of the iPad and the recently talked-about Motorolla Droid based pad computer must not be underestimated. These are the computing platforms of the future – small, powerful, and transportable. The issues that will be overcome in the next couple of years include:
- Increased speed and cores for these mobile chips (see dual core Samsung Orion processor)
- Smaller form factor and large capacity solid state hard drives (see Intel SSD roadmap 2010)\
- Some form of visualization that will give the user a very large screen – either
- projection – to a wall or via special glasses
- direct monitor hookup
- wireless external monitor interface (BlueTooth-ish).
- Fabric monitors and very thin substrate monitors are in the works and should be commercially available in two to three years.
This increasingly mobile computing platform will be more and more integrated with everything we do. Work, play, socialization, financial transactions, and most other life-events will become computer-enhanced.
Some theorists are predicting implant technology within the next decade – something that will merge the human mind with the storage, retrieval, and processing of information in near-real-time. If we are able to think and receive direct sensory input from a computing device, how much longer before we are fully integrated into the ‘web’. Thought theft may be a new crime, particularly when some ideas are worth millions of dollars.
That point in time where computers or computer networks become self-aware – the so called ’singularity’, may not be as far off as we once thought. While the human brain may take another 100 years to replicate in a silicon-biological hybrid form factor, that may not be needed if we begin to feed our network with thought, emotion, dreams, and raw information on a regular basis. All that is required is an algorithm that ties everything together
